Where’s the Value?

From 1928–2017 the value premium, the return difference between stocks with low relative prices (value) and stocks with high relative prices (growth), in the US had a positive annualized return of approximately 3.5%.[2] In seven of the last 10 calendar…

2018 Market Outlook

2018 Market Outlook

Where should you invest now?  As I wrote last year in “Should I Own International Stocks?”, in investing it is important to “skate where the puck is going, not where it has been” (Wayne Gretzky).  What this means is don’t…

10 Year Real Returns

Should I Own International Stocks?

Why own international stocks? Especially when, as noted in Exhibit 1 below, US stocks have outperformed international stocks over the last one, five and ten years, respectively.  After all, most investors would have been better off only investing in US…

Valuation Change

Why Have US Stocks Performed So Well?

During 2011, in the midst of the federal debt showdown, there would have been very few investors who believed the S&P 500 would return 16% per year over the next five years, especially if they knew that company economic performance would…

Index Investing Popularity is Flashing a Caution Sign

Since index investing in the stock market was invented, its popularity has risen and fallen in cycles that closely match bull and bear markets.   In 2014, stock index investing’s popularity surpassed its prior peak from 2008 and is thus flashing…